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Blog

Someone must have slandered Marko R., for one morning, without having done anything truly wrong, he was arrested

This is my brief account of events which happened last week, I am going to try to make it as precise as possible and as neutral as possible although I am aware that this is not entirely possible.

On Tuesday evening last week (6th of april 2010) new web site appeared on the internet called registarbranitelja.com. This is basically search engine which allows you to search war veteran database. This is highly disputed document because it contains more then half a milion names and just about everyone agrees that this list is inflated with about 100-150.000 names – the problem comes with the fact that based on your presence on the list you might be able to draw some benefits from your war veteran status (not all people can do that, it is more related to people who were either retired with military pensions or handicaped during war, usualy with PTSD diagnose).

Around 22:00 I have received few calls from my fellow webmasters and immediately after that from some journalists asking me if it is true that I am the one behind that web site. The reason for that claim was few anonymous comments on some web sites (I have identified at least three sites, comment appears to be made about the same time) which claimed that part of my google analytics code which I used on my “World forum e-democracy award” winning site pollitika.com was used on that site as well. I was unable to confirm that because site was down (probably due to overhelming interest), site is now online and that code is not visible.

At the same time, few war veteran NGOs have protested and basically made a number of non-specific threats against person who published that registry and that fact scared me and made me panic because it was clear from numerous journalist requests that I will be identified as possible author of that site. I have tried to access that site thru the night without success and early in the morning I went to police in order to explain my non existing role in this and to ask for protection. One of the problems later reported is that during night I have contacted President of Republic of Croatia for whom I worked in recent election campaign. I did that in order to warn him about developing story and to express my assessment that this story will inveitably affect him and his office. We have also agreed to talk with National Security advisor early in the morning so that he can make some suggestion on what to do. His advice was to simply go to the police and I followed it immediately.

I went to police station and there I made one hour talk with people there about all I know about this site as well as recapitulating events and timeline of previous evening and night. At one point they decided to move questioning to another police station where they asked me to go to the lie detector. At that point I have asked for my lawyer since it seemed to me that this is very unusual request, after my lawyer came to police station he immediately advised against it. Police at that moment begun stalling and I was arrested on wednesday 7th of april at 15:40.

Later in the day police obrtained court orders to search my home, office, car and me and that searches were made. Police temporarely confiscated all computer equipment present in the house and office (including notebook owned by my son, and ADSL router), all magnetic media and a number of DVDs and USB memory sticks.

After the search was done, I was released late in the evening (somewhere about midnight, few minutes before that).

On thursday and friday, after police obtained additional court orders to search my equipment we have begun searching it and (of course) they find nothing. Equipment was returned to me except for a single device which is expected to be searched tomorrow Tuesday 13th of April 2010.  (because of technical reasons they were unable to read it last friday).

I hope that tomorrow police will officialy state that they have found nothing and that I am not anymore person of their interest. I will really insist on that since currently I am the only person associated with this incident and there is a danger of retribution from some of the fake war veterans. I was assigned with police protection and it is clear to me that I am also under surveilance (I have detected equipment they have installed to eavesdrop my internet communication). There is also a reason to belive that some of my equipment was tampered with while it was held in secure storage in police station (which is against the law) and we have also proved that for at least one piece of equipment there was a breach of police protocol.

Just to make few very short and clear statements:

  • I have not published war vetran registry
  • Police officers working on my arrest, search and investigation were extremly polite and they went to great lengths to assist me
  • I have made myself completely avaliable to the police and have and intend to cooperate with them 100% with two exceptions: based on advice of my attorney I have not accepted lie detector test and I have not surrendered my passwords to the police
  • I wish for this whole affair to be over and to have some time to reevaluate past events, I want to be able to remove all emotions and stress involved with this and to be able to think about this (and its consequences) with clear head; based on that, future police behaviour and legal analysis of what happened (and people claim that this is extremly unusual police argumentation) I will think about what to do next

Ok, so this is it. I have a meeting (with some lawyers :) and do not have time to recheck grammar and spelling. If you have any questions please contact me directly or thru comments.

UPDATE;

I completely forgot to write above that war veteran registry is claimed to be state secret. It is unclear when or how it is classified or even which exact level of classification is used, since all laws which are regulating this matter do not mention that this registry is in any way secret (it is surely protected by law for protecting private data). My arrest warrant was made according to article 351 item 2 of Croatian criminal code which deals with state secrets.

Categories
Blog

Nekoliko stvari koje mislim da je važno reći

First in english to my all foregin friends: I am safe and free and will soon be home, I am unfortunatetly too tired to write in both languages so please bear with me and let me explain everything tomorrow.

  • Nemam snage pregledati sada medije i vidjeti što se sve danas napisalo ali moj odvjetnik i prijatelji kažu kako novinarima moram biti (i jesam) iznimno zahvalan. Dati ću sve od sebe da u budućem razdoblju uzvratim svu ovu pažnju koju sam dobio (iako, nadam se na malo manje spektakularan način). Puno hvala, skrušen sam Vašom jedinstvenom podrškom.
  • Odmah da kažem kako je i policija prema meni bila iznimno korektna, uviđavna i doista su se trudili pokazati i objasniti sve što me zanimalo. Odnos je u apsolutno svakom trenutku bio profesionalan i pun razumijevanja te nema apsolutno nikakve zamjerke na njihovo postupanje i mislim da svi skupa možemo biti ponosni na to kakve policijske službenike imamo.
  • Jučer navečer oko 22 sata nekoliko kolega webmastera i novinara ukazalo mi je na kometare koji su se pojavili na nekolicini siteova, a koji izrijekom mene identificiraju kao osobu koja je objavila registar branitelja. To zapažanje se baziralo na komadu koda koji je (čini se, ja to nažalost nisam vidio niti sam se mogao uvjeriti) kopiran sa pollitika.com-a. Sve što sam saznao o tome tijekom jučerašnje večeri i noći sam prenio policiji.
  • Također, nakon što su se novinarski pozivi zaredali tijekom jučerašnje večeri, shvatio sam da je vrag odnio šalu te da se netko vrlo, vrlo, vrlo grubo i neumijesno odlučio poigrati mojim identitetom. Iskreno, bio sam prestravljen time da je netko napisao da sam to ja uza svu hajku koja se jučer digla tijekom večeri. Nisam spavao cijelu noć i ujutro sam nazvao Pantovčak i zamolio za savjet koji je bio kratak i jednostavan, a to je da istoga časa odem na policiju što sam i učinio ne popivši jutarnju kavu do kraja.
  • U policiju sam otišao dobrovoljno i kao građanin kako bi osigurao da sve što znam o registru (a osobito na optužbu koja se tiče mene osobno) odmah s njima riješim. Nakon obavljena razgovora policija je odlučila uhititi me oko 15:40.
  • Tijekom popodneva policija je ishodila dopuštenja za pregled moje kuće, automobila i ureda te su iz tih prostora izuzeli niz predmeta (od kojih svi redom imaju isklj/uklj prekidač), te telefon. Kada su pretrage dovršene odlučili su me pustiti kući.
  • Vjerojatno već sutra tijekom dana će se nastaviti izvidi i pregledi u času kada policija pribavi preostale dozvole i kao što sam to napravio i danas, imam najbolju namjeru s policijom u potpunosti surađivati. Nadam se da će mi vratiti izuzete predmete što je prije moguće, ne samo zato što na njima nema ničega što bi njih moglo zanimati nego i zato što je to temeljni alat za moj posao od kojega živim.
  • Policija me tereti za kazneno djelo iz članka 351. stavak 2 kaznenog zakona što je, koliko razumijem, odavanje službene tajne a za što se može dobiti kazna zatvora do tri godine (navodno, ovo moram provjeriti jer nije baš da je bilo vremena za proučavanje zakona i finesa koje iz njega proizlaze).
  • I naravno posljednje i najbitnije: JA NISAM OBJAVIO REGISTAR BRANITELJA, ne mogu to drugačije i preciznije reći i nadam se da će policija učiniti sve štogod može i to u najkraćem mogućem roku da se ova suluda optužba odbaci te da se to adekvatno objasni javnosti.

Toliko za večeras, nemam više snage, umoran sam, pod velikim stresom i moram pokušati objasniti svojoj obitelji što im se to dogodilo i zašto. Sutra tijekom dana ću nadam se napisati nešto više i detaljnije (čim nabavim neko računalo).

Napominjem svim novinarima kao i svima ostalima koji me žele kontaktirati da to zasada rade na moju mail adresu jer mi je telefon oduzet a moram tokom jutra nabaviti novi.

Misao dana:
Okovi su krila da se brže leti.

Categories
Ekonomija

Laž, prokleta laž i statistika

Svi znamo da je manje-više sve što je vrijedilo otišlo k vragu. U posljednje vrijeme se bavim proučavanjem načina kako vizualizirati određene podatke, a inače me smeta selektivno prikazivanje različitih podataka na način koji jednostavno nije prihvatljiv ili koji daje samo dio stvarne slike što se u stvari događa.

Jedan od boljih parametara za to je pokazatelj broja nezaposlenih. Naime, ta brojka je plod metodologije zavoda za zapošljavanje (koji, doduše slijedi neke druge i svjetske standarde), no mislim da je manji problem u tom broju nezaposlenih koliko je u biti problem u broju zaposlenih; a onda njih u odnosu na ukupnu populaciju (nešto o tome se pisalo prije nekoliko dana, primjerice Goran Radman je upozorio kako smo nacija s najmanjim postotkom zaposlenih tj. radno sposobnih u odnosu na ukupnu populaciju). Tako sam se zapitao da li je možda broj nezaposlenih samo vrh neke veće sante leda o kojoj možda ne diskutiramo pa je tako nastao donji graf:

Ono što sam htio pokazati su tri temeljna elementa kojime možemo pratiti što se događa. Krenuo sam promatrati posljednje dvije godine kako bi imali referentnu situaciju i nekako si mislim da je to donji minimum da možemo predvidjeti što bi se moglo događati u slijedećim mjesecima. Plava linija je linija ukupnog broja zaposlenih u državi i na nju se odnosi lijeva okomita os u grafikonu, početkom 2008 godine (dakle u veljači) imali smo 1.504.138 zaposlenih u državi i 260.091 nezaposlenog (to je crvena linija). Danas je situacija bitno drugačija, i na tržištu je famoznih 317.625 nezaposlenih (iako je u stvari broj nezaposlenih daleko veći, ovo je administrativna brojka), no puno bitnije je promatrati broj zaposlenih koji je pao (a to je ova oštro padajuća plava linija) na 1.421.478. Razlika između broja zaposlenih u veljači 2008 i u veljači 2010 godine je impresivnih 82.660 ljudi.

Dakle, nije samo broj nezaposlenih narastao sa 260 na 317 tisuća (dakle 57.000 novih nezaposlenika), nego se i broj zaposlenih smanjio za 82 tisuće ljudi (ili, izgubili smo 43% radnih mjesta više nego što to iskazuje statistika nezaposlenih). tih 80+ tisuća ljudi predstavlja mjesečni promet novca od otprilike 740 milijuna kuna (koji bi išli što državi, što zaposlenima, a samim time velikim dijelom i u potrošnju).

Ono što klasično razmišljanje kaže je također i to da je logično da dok nezaposlenost raste ujedno pada i zaposlenost, no mislim da u svojoj biti, te dvije brojke je potrebno zbrajati unatoč tome što se dijelom preklapaju iz jednostavnog razloga što su ti ljudi i dalje tu, oni brisanjem radnog mjesta nisu nestali nego su i dalje među nama i svakoga dana moraju jesti kruh i mlijeko – ono što se razlikuje je izvor odakle taj novac koji je potreban da oni prežive do sutrašnjeg dana dolazi. Ili, podjednostavljeno rečeno, tih 740 izgubljenih milijuna mjesečno nije samo čisto linearno smanjenje prihoda državnog proračuna i društva u cjelini, nego se dobar dio od tih 740 milijuna mora odnekuda iscrpiti, dakle ne samo da je proračun izgubio svoj prihod nego mora još tim istim ljudima isplatiti neke naknade (socijalne naknade, zdrastveno i slično).

I posljednje, nisam ja neki veliki ekonomista nonije teško uočiti da je linearnost trenda rasta nezaposlenih i strmina pada broja zaposlenih nešto što se nije niti slično desilo u 2008. godini, tako da nije osobito teško predvidjeti gdje ćemo se naći krajem svibnja (a to je nevjerojatnih 30.000 nezaposlenih više i skoro pa dodatnih 50.000 zaposlenih manje).

Pitanje dana glasi: koliko ovo dalje može ići prije nego što država ne počne pucati po šavovima?

Misao dana:
When people thought the Earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the Earth was spherical they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the Earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the Earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together.